شناسایی عوامل مؤثر راهبردی بر آینده صنعت بانکداری

This study aims to identify the strategic factors affecting the future of banking industry, so the method of the study in view of nature is »descriptive_analytical« and in view of methodology is based on commingling method (a synthetic method of qualitative and quantitative method). statistical society consisting of experts and elites of banking industry, estimated 30 people. Statistical samples are 8 people, who are elites in banking industry who are selected based on »goal oreinted« and judicative method. In This article by using Foresight methods as cross impact balance and the scenario planning to identify strategic factors affecting the banking industry discussed the future And then the major scenarios ahead the banking industry are compiled and analyzed. Initial research data have been analyzed by using the mic mac software. The results obtained from the use of CIB showed that 10 key operating profitability, resources and expenditures, government and the economy, interest and reserve requirements, payments, capital adequacy, sanctions, laws and regulations, duty facilities and environment of economic uncertainty among identified factors will have the greatest impact and influence on the future of the banking industry, these basic factors used in scenario planning. In order to scenario planning at this stage of experts were consulted and ultimately the sum of 31 possible position for 10 factors were defined. Possible position for any of a variety of situations covered unfavorable to favorable. An analysis performed by the scenario wizard software, 5 strong scenario and 9 believable scenario of based on 31 possible position on the 10 key driving was extracted. The 5 obtained scenaries have prespectives to future in which one is desirable and the rest are terrible, so a strategic scenario should be codified to fill analyse and the gap between current situation and desirable situation.